I learned today, while perusing the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, that several localities in Wisconsin are putting Iraq war referendums on the ballot in their April and November elections. I first learned about the Milwaukee referendum when I came across
this editorial from the 10 February 2006 MJS. The editorial, written by a supporter of the referendum, offers a laundry list of negative assertions about Operation Iraqi Freedom that the reader must unquestioningly and uncritically accept because she doesn't offer any substantiation to her claims -- just the list. It goes back to something my high school history teacher would tell her students -- something is not true simply because you say it is true. You need to establish that it is true through your argument. And a list is not an argument.
But I'm not writing this post to talk about this particular editorial, although I may address it in the future. Rather, I want to talk about these referendums popping up across Wisconsin and their possible significance.
From the February 4, 2006 edition of the MJS:
State a 'test site' for referendums on the warA growing movement of local referendums on the Iraq war is making a name for Wisconsin in a way that proponents see as an achievement, but critics regard as an embarrassment.
Depending on the outcome of referendums scheduled so far in 21 communities, including Milwaukee, anti-war activists in other states might follow Wisconsin's lead in using the ballot box to gauge opposition to the war.
The intent, according to article, is to "send a symbolic message about whether Wisconsin voters think U.S. troops should withdraw from Iraq." According to an MJS article appearing on 19 January 2006, here is how the question will appear on the Milwaukee ballot in November, to which voters will respond with a yes or a no vote:
Milwaukee voters will be asked: "Shall the United States commence a humane, orderly, rapid and comprehensive withdrawal of United States military personnel and bases from Iraq?" An early version called for the nation to "immediately" begin withdrawing troops, but Mayor Tom Barrett and others criticized that language.
I don't have the specific language of the referendums on the ballot in other communities but surmise that they are probably similar. The question, of course, is whether these referendums are a good thing, a bad thing or simply a thing.
My initial reaction is that, regardless of the outcome, there is little real significance to this sort of thing but strong potential for abuse in the information war.
I say that there is little real significance to a referendum of this sort because local elections generally don't see voters turn out in significant numbers. I don't particularly place much importance on the results of a referendum when only a small minority of voters participates.
I say that there is strong potential for abuse in the information war because numbers are funny things and it seems that creative spinsters can always make the numbers support their particular point of view. The full story must include context and details about voter demographics and turnout. In this case, I strongly suspect that antiwar groups will take the results of these referendums and use them to support the notion that support for the war is waning. The converse is also true, but, pardon my cynicism, I think that the former will get the bulk of the sympathetic coverage.
Bottom line, I don’t think that these referendums will produce anything beneficial to the war effort unless they are overwhelmingly rejected and that voters turn out in numbers significant enough to dispel the notion that the pool of votes was too small and only representative of the dedicated minority as opposed to the population in general. If the results are close, then we will have to endure apologists from each camp explaining why the results should be viewed in a certain way. If voters accept the referendums, I don't necessarily expect it to be front-page news all over the world -- Wisconsin is probably too small a stage, I think. But I wouldn't be surprised if the referendums received widespread, if brief, coverage. If voters reject the referendums in a gesture of support for our efforts in Iraq, I would expect much less coverage.
On the other hand, it is entirely possible that the results of these referendums could get widespread publicity. Suppose the Milwaukee referendum passes -- a not too farfetched notion. It is by no means inconceivable that our antiwar friends in other states (especially blue states -- or "blue big cities" in otherwise red states) would do the same thing with similar results. This could easily develop into a campaign with the goal of proving that support among the American people for our efforts in Iraq is weak. That's not good for morale. The last thing we should do is communicate to our soldiers an eroding foundation of support. I promise, nothing good can come of that.
The way I see it, people who want us to win in Iraq have two options. The first option is to get the referendums off of the ballot. That will prevent biased individuals or groups from twisting the results. I don't think that this is feasible or even smart because it will undoubtedly produce criticism about suppression of democracy and such. And that criticism would not be entirely incorrect. The other option is to campaign aggressively and vote to reject them. Like I said before, the only way that these referendums can benefit the war effort is if they are overwhelmingly rejected. That will be easier said than done because some of these cities are fertile ground politically speaking for antiwar sentiment. If you look at a map of election results, you would observe that Wisconsin is a blue state. That isn't quite accurate -- it's actually a red state with two really big, really blue blobs centered vicinity Milwaukee and Madison (and a few smaller blobs elsewhere). Unfortunately, I would be surprised if voters in Milwaukee and Madison reject these referendums. As far as the other referendums, I'm not sure; but I'm guessing that antiwar groups won't push for a referendum in a city where they thought they'd lose...
I'll continue to follow this topic. It deals with the Iraq war, it deals with Wisconsin... what more could a soldier blogger from Wisconsin ask for? :)
Be safe, drink water.
Phil