Take the long view
I found this article today on the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Online:
Indonesian Rebels End 30-Year Insurgency
What is the relevance to Iraq? The relevance is that insurgencies take a long time to die down and often the victory comes by persuading the insurgents to buy into the political process, as happened in Indonesia.
I'm not suggesting that the Indonesian insurgency was the same as the current Iraqi insurgency. There are stark contrasts, most notably that the Indonesian insurgency did not have the full endorsement and support of Al Qaeda and the Indonesian government did not have an outside power shouldering much of the burden.
Nonetheless, the election earlier this month demonstrated that Iraqis by the millions desire to participate in democratic self rule. Additionally, the election demonstrated that certain segments of the population that once actively supported the insurgency (and probably still do) have, at least temporarily, bought into the political system. That is a very good thing and bodes quite well for ultimate strategic victory (in Phil's small mind, Ultimate Strategic Victory = Iraqi government and security forces sufficiently stable and pluralistic so as to allow us to drastically if not completely reduce our footprint of combat soldiers).
The lesson from the Indonesian insurgency is that these things take time. This rebellion against the government in Indonesia started in 1976. The insurgency in Iraq began in the summer of 2003 and could, arguably, be given a free pass until the transfer of sovereignty. As of June 2004, with the transfer of sovereignty, the insurgency became a rebellion against the Iraqi government.
And so, tiptoeing technicalities, the insurgency could be less than two years old, and we have already made enormous strides. Keep in mind that the Iraqi insurgency is divided between terrorists and legitimate insurgents (you can tell the difference by their tactics and by their targets). As insurgents (and their base of support) buy into the political process, don't be surprised if the Iraqi public becomes increasingly less tolerant of the terrorists. Right now, they share certain goals and each group is a means to an end for the other. But that dynamic will change as the insurgents' base in the Sunni population buys into the democratic process.
The important lesson to take from this incoherent rambling is that this takes time. Don't sacrifice long-term success because short-term sacrifice is unpleasant. Take the long view.
Be safe, drink water.
Phil
Indonesian Rebels End 30-Year Insurgency
The two sides signed an accord in August, and the rebels last week finished handing over their self-declared 840 weapons. Tuesday's disbanding was the next major step under the plan, and it carried large symbolic weight.
"The armed wing of the Free Aceh Movement has demobilized and disbanded," said rebel commander Sofyan Daud, effectively ending the separatist insurgency that has killed at least 15,000 people since 1976.
What is the relevance to Iraq? The relevance is that insurgencies take a long time to die down and often the victory comes by persuading the insurgents to buy into the political process, as happened in Indonesia.
"The Aceh national army is now part of civil society, and will work to make the peace deal a success," he said after meeting with President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in the provincial capital, Banda Aceh.
"We are entering a political era now. We do not need weapons anymore."
Instead, the guerrillas will participate in April elections in this province of 4 million people on the northern tip of Sumatra island.
I'm not suggesting that the Indonesian insurgency was the same as the current Iraqi insurgency. There are stark contrasts, most notably that the Indonesian insurgency did not have the full endorsement and support of Al Qaeda and the Indonesian government did not have an outside power shouldering much of the burden.
Nonetheless, the election earlier this month demonstrated that Iraqis by the millions desire to participate in democratic self rule. Additionally, the election demonstrated that certain segments of the population that once actively supported the insurgency (and probably still do) have, at least temporarily, bought into the political system. That is a very good thing and bodes quite well for ultimate strategic victory (in Phil's small mind, Ultimate Strategic Victory = Iraqi government and security forces sufficiently stable and pluralistic so as to allow us to drastically if not completely reduce our footprint of combat soldiers).
The lesson from the Indonesian insurgency is that these things take time. This rebellion against the government in Indonesia started in 1976. The insurgency in Iraq began in the summer of 2003 and could, arguably, be given a free pass until the transfer of sovereignty. As of June 2004, with the transfer of sovereignty, the insurgency became a rebellion against the Iraqi government.
And so, tiptoeing technicalities, the insurgency could be less than two years old, and we have already made enormous strides. Keep in mind that the Iraqi insurgency is divided between terrorists and legitimate insurgents (you can tell the difference by their tactics and by their targets). As insurgents (and their base of support) buy into the political process, don't be surprised if the Iraqi public becomes increasingly less tolerant of the terrorists. Right now, they share certain goals and each group is a means to an end for the other. But that dynamic will change as the insurgents' base in the Sunni population buys into the democratic process.
The important lesson to take from this incoherent rambling is that this takes time. Don't sacrifice long-term success because short-term sacrifice is unpleasant. Take the long view.
Be safe, drink water.
Phil
posted at 1:17 PM
1 Comments:
It is so good to have real reporting and worthwhile commentary from 'boots on the ground' folk in Iraq. Phil, you have no idea how much I appreciate your posts.
Thanx,
Kermit
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